Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Gold closes at record high, but lows are the story of the day

There is something that is difficult for most people (including myself) to grasp. Especially with the market bleeding red . The difficult concept is that when something goes down in the market, something else goes up. The reason that the stock market was down so much today had very little to do with housing and with the investigation of Washington Mutual. That mess does not have the power to drop the U.S. stock market over 350 points in one session. The stock futures are still ticking lower as I type.

The reason that the stock market fell so much today was because of China. They hold 1.3 Trillion U.S. dollars and they announced publicly today for the first time that they will sell dollars in order to diversify assets.

When the announcement was made, the euro gained a penny on the dollar in less than 4 minutes. In the world of currency trading, that is a monster move. It continued to rise throughout the session and put in what I think is an intermediate top. This is what caused the market to fall today. The declining dollar. Here is the usd/euro chart:




(Click for lager image)

The Japanese yen also had a similar move, but it has a more important relationship to the action of the stock market. The yen now determines if the U.S. market is up or down. And the dollar continues to move lower against it as I write this. If you thought today was bad, tomorrow could be worse if the yen breaches the 111.5 level and stays down there for any considerable period of time (30 minutes or longer).



(Click for larger image)

I know how bearish this sounds, but when looking at the bigger picture. It becomes clear that the August lows will be tested, and that some of the larger banks are at risk of suffering serious financial hardships.



(Click for larger image)

You can still make money by putting your money in the right places. I know I sound like a broken record, but Jim Rogers has given investors many options to make money in this type of environment. The Japanese yen can be purchased through the FXY.

Now, take a deep breath, calm down, and watch the video




No comments:

Powered By Blogger